Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Oct 14 - Afternoon update

As we approach the close, the Dow remains within that 1% range I expected, but unfortunately it's on the down side, as profit-takers emerge and will run up their activity to the close. With the exception of IBM, tech has gone down the drain today, with the Nasdaq trading down over 4%. On the bright side, financials continue to hold their morning gains, with the exception of the early stragglers (USB, JPM, BLK, PNC). The Energy and Oil sectors remain split, although crude has edged lower since this morning, trading down a little over 2% right now. Pharma is the only other major sector trading mostly higher on the day. VIX has stayed steady at +5%, signifying that investor confidence obviously isn't what it was yesterday, and that large gains after a weekend can often be overextended. Remember too that we are in a bear market, and large one-day gains like yesterday are not uncommon.

In the news, the new line of Macbooks was introduced today, sporting a metal body and multi-touch trackpad; despite this, AAPL is trading down 5%, being drug down by the rest of the sector. Acclaimed economist Nouriel Roubini is still extremely bearish on the markets, and is quoted saying that "we are still in a recession that is the worst we've seen in 40 years." Global markets, however, remain positive, with Russia futures up 17% and Nikkei futures up 3.75%.

If the Dow continues its downward slide and falls deeply outside of my 1% range, I think this will point to a larger fear of bad 3Q earnings then I originally anticipated. That remains to be seen.

See you at the close.

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